Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
