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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often acts as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest upset.

However the latest competition is distinctly different. The group of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners declining and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still